Germplasm movement zones of eight forest species and future projections in the face of climate change in the Southeast of Mexico

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Germplasm is required to meet the needs of national and international forest restoration programs. Delimitation of germplasm movement zones is an effective tool to address problems of maladaptation of these materials but, in Mexico, the current delimitation of seed movement zones defines very heterogeneous areas while the availability of reliable information of the current distribution of species remains insufficient. This study expands and updates the information regarding the potential distribution of eight forest species: Brosimum alicastrum, Bursera simaruba, Cedrela odorata, Cordia alliodora, Cordia dodecandra, Ochroma pyramidale, Swietenia macrophylla, and Tabebuia rosea, and redefines the germplasm movement zones in seven states of southeastern Mexico, evaluating future changes in the climatic conditions for the time horizons of 2030 and 2060 by combining species distribution modeling techniques and delimitation of germplasm movement zones. Four of the eight predictive variables used in the model construction were determinant in the distribution of all eight species. The germplasm movement zones presented in the Mexican norms and those obtained in the present study differ. The zones of the existing standard are larger and each covers several of the climatic zones proposed in this study, producing seed movement in areas with greater climatic differences. The results suggest a tendency towards an increase in the Refheldt’s aridity index of 2.6 by the year 2060 and of 1.8 °C in the mean temperature of the coldest month, as well as a contraction in the potential distributions of seven of the eight species analyzed over the period 2021–2040. eng