Vulnerability assessing contagion risk of Covid-19 using geographic information systems and multi-criteria decision analysis: case study Chetumal, México

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The Covid-19 pandemic called SARS-CoV-2 and the declaration of a public health emergency of international importance aroused the interest of the scientific community in the assessment of risks and vulnerability related to viral infection. The purpose of this study was to evaluate and map the susceptibility of the risk to Covid-19 contagion in Chetumal, Mexico, by calibrating and applying a vulnerability model classified into four categories (extremely high, high, moder ate and low) using Systems of Geographic Information (GIS) and Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA). The objective refers to the achievement of a useful tool to help the health sector, local governments, the scientific community and the population in general to identify the best strategies to reduce contagion or restart local activities during quarantine conditions. For this purpose, a method ology based on GIS-MCDA was developed consisting of four stages and using nine essential criteria selected and evaluated by a transdisciplinary team of doctors and specialists in GIS. The vulnerability model made it possible to identify areas with extremely high vulnerability located towards the city center and in an area hosted by various service centers. Areas with high vulnerability defined in popu lar neighborhoods with high and medium degrees of marginalization. Areas with moderate vulnerability located around the areas of high vulnerability and areas of low vulnerability encompassing the perimeter areas of the city. eng