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Mangroves provide multiple valuable environmental services, including their high potential for the sequestration of blue carbon. However, mangrove conservation is socially demanding. Through a spatiotemporal analysis of the inhabitants of this dynamic coastal ecosystem in Mexico, we found that the numbers of small settlements within mangroves increased during the study period despite a decline in mangrove stands and in the human populations inhabiting them. Extended rural developments have been banished to external buffer areas, whereas near-subsistence hamlets are increasingly occupying mangrove forest. The ability of mangroves to sequester atmospheric blue carbon relies on regional socioeconomic patterns and stressors that should be considered in the development of mangrove conservation initiatives. Our study enables identification of potential areas of research - e.g., forestry buffer zones, social exclusion, permanent settlements, and integral monitoring - that can incorporate the social dimensions of blue carbon conservation into the political and research agendas. Inglés

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